Warmer waters of Bay of Bengal are typically more prone to cyclones than the cooler and calmer Arabian Sea, but the trend seems to be changing. Examine.

The rate of cyclone formation in Arabian sea has nearly doubled in the last 15 years as compared to those in Bay of Bengal. Bay of Bengal is more prone to cyclones: (1) Smaller in size than Arabian Sea. (2) More flux of fresh water. E.g. Ganga, Krishna. (3) More enclosed body thus higher warming caused by contact with land. (4) Suitable conditions available especially during pre-monsoon times. (5) Cyclone Amphan, Taukett etc.

Factors leading to higher number of cyclones in Arabian Sea: (1) Indian Ocean Dipole - Positive IOD increases temperature in West Indian Ocean and hence Arabian Sea. (2) ENSO - Frequent and prolonged spells of El-Nino in Pacific Ocean have inclined bearing on Arabian sea temperature. (3) Slowing down of AMOC - leading to disruption in heat distribution. (4) Decrease in influx of already scarce freshwater at Narmada and Tapi. (5) Green house gas emissions caused by vehicles used for trade via sea. The rising and changing trend of cyclones is a wake up call to take efficient steps to prevent reaching tipping point and fulfill mandate of Paris agreements.