The present demographic transition varies across different states of India making population growth a double-edged sword. Comment.
Introduction
India is currently reaping its demographic dividend that is expected to last till 2046, as per UNFPA.
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Main Body
Varied Demographic Transition - India's TFR is 2.0 with different states at different stages. Some states have high birth rates in 3rd stage per NFHS, while others have stabilising birth rates at BR stage III. Tribes remain in 1st stage of transition while ageing has started in Kerala at stage IV. There is significant state variation across the country.
Results in a double edged sword with positive and negative dimensions. Positive edge: (1) when certain states facing aging, other younger states compensate with lower median age. (2) Contribution to demographic dividend. Negative edge: (3) Regional disparity due to population pressure. (4) Gender issues - example ghost villages in Uttarkhand. (5) If unchecked, can become demographic disaster. Keeping this in mind, need is to plan FOR the population rather than just planning the population.
Conclusion
There is a need to plan FOR the population rather than just planning the population.
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Diagram
Map of India showing different demographic stages across states: TFR 2.0, high birth rate at 3rd stage, stabilising BR at stage III, tribes at 1st stage, Kerala at ageing stage IV
- Uses UNFPA data
- Shows understanding of different demographic stages
- Provides specific examples with TFR data
Annapurna Singh
Population and Associated Issues
Population and demographic transition
Demographic dividend and state-level variations
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